Donald Trump has brought out the largest crowds in the history of primaries. He has won the most victories, the most delegates, the most votes. He is poised to sweep three of the five largest states in the nation — New York, Pennsylvania and California.
If he does, and the nomination is taken from him, the Republican Party will be seen by the American people as a glorified Chinese tong.
But having gone head-to-head in some 30 primaries and caucuses, Cruz has fallen millions of votes behind Trump, and will fall millions further behind after New York, Pennsylvania and California.
Cruz will soon join John Kasich in being mathematically eliminated from winning the nomination on the first ballot. His fallback strategy is to keep Trump just short of the 1,237 votes needed for victory on the first ballot, and then steal the nomination on the second.
PJB - here.
I have run the numbers for the remaining Republican contests and determined that Trump is likely to head to Cleveland as much as 100 delegates short of 1,237.
There are 5 'Winner Take All' contests remaining in which Trump holds massive superiority in the polls (except California, where he is only up 7 or so). The delegates from these 5 come to 366. This takes Trump to 1,110.
In New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Oregon, Trump is also spanking Cruz/Kasich. These 4 states have 170 delegates, all proportionally allocated. Trump 'should' claim 90 or so from these proportional states, putting him near 1,200.
Factor more inside baseball maneuvers by Cruz, and by all indications Trump will likely enter Cleveland short of a clean win.
That's where things get sporty. That's where American history books will pick up an exciting new chapter on the political front.
That's why we'll be in Cleveland. People who self-identify on either side of the Left/Right political spectrum genuinely despise one another. They hold ideologies that are irreconcilable - and patience is likely as thin now as it was in the months leading up to Fort Sumter. On every front - from politics to the economy to Islam Rising in American neighborhoods - this nation is a gasoline-soaked explosion waiting to happen...
...and there are far too many people who think they can advance their agendas by playing with matches.